UTILIZING LARGE SCALE DATASETS TO EVALUATE ASPECTS OF A SUSTAINABLE BIOECONOMY

This dissertation combines large scale datasets to evaluate crop prediction, land values, and consumption of a crop being considered to advance a sustainable bioeconomy. In chapter 2, we propose a novel application of the multinomial logit (MNL) model to estimate the conditional transition probabilities of crop choice for the state of Kentucky. Utilizing the recovered transition probabilities the forecast distributions of total acreages for alfalfa, corn, soybeans, tobacco, and wheat produced in the state from 2010 to 2015 can be recovered. The Cropland Data Layer is merged with the Common Land Unit dataset to allow for the identification of crop choice at the field level. Our findings show there are higher probabilities of planting soybeans or wheat after corn relative to corn after corn, tobacco, or alfalfa. In addition, the transition probability of the crop rotation demonstrates that corn will be planted after soybean, and vice versa and that alfalfa has a lower probability of being rotated with other crops from year to year. These findings are expected with traditional crop rotation in the U.S., and a characteristic of a perennial crop, especially for alfalfa. Finally, forecasting results indicate that there are significantly wider distributions in corn and soybean, whereas there is a little variation in the tobacco, wheat and alfalfa acres in the simulation. In chapter 3, we identify critical consumer-demographic characteristics that are associated with the consumption of products containing hemp and investigate their effect on total expenditure in the U.S. To estimate the likelihood of market participation and consumption level, the Heckman selection model, is employed using the maximum likelihood estimation procedure utilizing Nielsen consumer panel data from 2008 to 2015. Results indicate marketing strategies targeting consumers with higher education and income levels can attract new customers and increase sales from current consumers for this burgeoning market. Head-of-household age in different regions shows mixed effects on decisions to purchase hemp products and consumption levels. Findings will provide a basic understanding of a consumer profile and overall hemp market that has had double-digit growth over the last six years. As the industry continues to move forward, policymakers are going to need a deeper understanding of the factors driving the industry if they are going to create regulations that support the development of the industry. In chapter 4, we investigate the factors that affect agricultural land values by proposing a new rich dataset, Zillow Transaction and Assessment Data (ZTRAX) provided by Zillow from 2009 to 2014. we also examine whether National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) could be a good indicator of land values or not by comparing two different regression models between county-level cash rent and parcel-level NCCPI. Finally, this study incorporates flexible functional forms of the parcel size to test the parcel size and land values relations. Findings show that factors influencing agricultural land values in states with heterogeneous agricultural lands such as Kentucky are not different from other states with relatively homogeneous agricultural lands. This study also provides suggestive evidence that there is a non-linear relationship between parcel size and land values. Furthermore, we find that a disaggregated NCCPI at parcel-level could be considered an acceptable indicator to estimate agricultural values compared to an aggregated cash rent at county-level

Impacts of Corn Price and Imported Beef Price on Domestic Beef Price in South Korea

South Korea is one of the largest beef importing countries in the world. Australia, USA, and New Zealand provide the majority of beef they import. The objective of this study is to evaluate the price relationship of Korean cattle and corn, prices of the imported beef and corn, and prices of Korean cattle and imported beef. We examine threshold points using threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model by assuming the presence of nonlinearity. We find that there are two thresholds in Australian beef price with first difference data. This study finds that the current Korean beef price is positively affected by increasing in the previous month of Australian beef price in first and second regimes. Changing in previous corn price has no significant impact on current Korean cattle price in the second regime. In the third regime, we find that current Korean cattle price is positively affected by previous corn price whereas no impact from previous Australian beef price. In this study, we could not use data for the USA due to the periods of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). However, we expect that current Korean beef price is significantly affected by changing in the previous month of US beef price using data after the periods of BSE

New Market Opportunities and Consumer Heterogeneity in the U.S. Organic Food Market

This paper investigates what factors and characteristics of organic consumers affect annual organic food expenditure by using Nielsen’s consumer panel dataset from 2010 to 2014. To be specific, this paper explores new marketing opportunities by investigating organic consumer heterogeneity in different household income levels by utilizing the multilevel model. Findings in this study will contribute to the previous and existing literature in three-folds. First, we find that the organic consumers are more heterogeneous in the high-level of income groups (approximately above $60,000), as well as the low-income households between$35,000 and $45,000. This finding demonstrates that the income levels above$60,000 and around $40,000 have potential market segmentation. Second, we find that that annual organic expenditure is positively associated with consumers who consecutively repurchase organic food products compared to irregular organic consumers, supporting a different level of satisfaction. Third, we find that USDA organic labeling has a positive effect on annual organic expenditure compared to the organic labeling certified by private companies, implying the importance of credibility for the organic labeling

Is Aging the Important Factor for Sustainable Agricultural Development in Korea? Evidence From the Relationship Between Aging and Farm Technical Efficiency

This paper examines the effects of aging and income subsidies on farm efficiency in Korea by utilizing the Korean Farm Household Economic Survey from 2008 to 2015. A stochastic frontier model with a non-monotonic assumption on the effect of efficiency factors is implemented to reflect a super aging and less developed production structure in Korean agriculture. This study finds continuously decreasing farm efficiency with age, which contradicts the commonly assumed inverted-U relationship between age and productivity. Especially, we find that labor is the most important factor to explain recent farm efficiency losses in Korea. Furthermore, this paper finds that the Korean income subsidy has a negative effect on farm efficiency. Our results provide two policy implications for the government of Korea. First, even though the “Returns to the Farm and Rural program” is appropriate, Korea should modify the program to encourage more young people to participate this program rather than old people, in order to attain the sustainable development of the agricultural sector. Second, a policy maker in Korea should consider a coupled subsidy that is directly related to farm production rather than a decoupled subsidy, regardless of the lower efficiency of the coupled subsidy in achieving agricultural development

Improving value estimates for restoration of Mississippi\u27s barrier islands

This research introduces a new value elicitation method for non-market valuation, referred to as the “quasi-double-bound (QDB)” method, applied to the case of barrierisland restoration in Mississippi. The objective of this thesis is to implement the QDB method in an actual stated-preference survey instrument and to test empirically whether the method elicits consistent responses and yields more efficient welfare estimates relative to the more-commonly used single-bound (SB) method. To test the QDB method, several models were estimated to derive a variety of welfare estimates for comparison to the estimates derived from the SB method. The QDB method introduced here results in a median willingness to pay (WTP) that was higher than the estimate of median WTP using the SB method in three of the five models estimated. The variances (i.e., confidence interval) of the QDB models were generally lower than those of the SB models

New Market Opportunities and Consumer Heterogeneity in the U.S. Organic Food Market

This paper investigates what factors and characteristics of organic consumers affect annual organic food expenditure by using Nielsen’s consumer panel dataset from 2010 to 2014. To be specific, this paper explores new marketing opportunities by investigating organic consumer heterogeneity in different household income levels by utilizing the multilevel model. Findings in this study will contribute to the previous and existing literature in three-folds. First, we find that the organic consumers are more heterogeneous in the high-level of income groups (approximately above $60,000), as well as the low-income households between$35,000 and $45,000. This finding demonstrates that the income levels above$60,000 and around $40,000 have potential market segmentation. Second, we find that that annual organic expenditure is positively associated with consumers who consecutively repurchase organic food products compared to irregular organic consumers, supporting a different level of satisfaction. Third, we find that USDA organic labeling has a positive effect on annual organic expenditure compared to the organic labeling certified by private companies, implying the importance of credibility for the organic labeling